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Once again, Aquaman has proven itself leggier (thus far) than National Treasure: Book of Secrets. The DC Films flick earned $3.9 million yesterday, which is a 51% jump from yesterday and a 75% drop from last Tuesday (which was New Year’s Day). The film has now earned $266.507m from a $72.5m debut weekend (counting the $4.7m in pre-release sneak previews), giving it a current 3.67x weekend-to-cume multiplier. That’s just under the 3.873x multiplier ($173m from a $44.7m launch on the same weekend in 2007) at this same point in time. So if it continues to play exactly like Book of Secrets from this point onward (and The Bucket List along with First Sunday may provide harsher competition compared to The Upside and A Dog’s Way Home), we’re looking at a $339m domestic cume, or well past Deadpool 2’s $325m cume.
That still feels like a pie-in-the-sky scenario, although there’s nothing this weekend to compare with (for example) the murderer’s row of early-2009 releases (Gran Torino’s $29 million wide release debut, Bride War’s $21m opening and The Unborn’s $19m launch). It’s possible that M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass may break out and still not “equal” combined might of Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($39 million over its Fri-Mon MLK debut in 2009), My Bloody Valentine ($24m Fri-Mon), Notorious ($23m Fri-Mon) and Hotel for Dogs ($23m Fri-Mon). And Aquaman certainly won’t have to worry about a leggy titan like Taken ($145m from a $24m Super Bowl weekend launch) in three weeks. When I talk about a time when folks went to the movies just to go to the movies, this is exactly what I’m thinking of.
All of 2009 (Taken, Star Trek, Hangover, District 9, Paranormal Activity, New Moon, Blind Side, Avatar, etc.) was incredibly exciting for box office pundits like myself, but that’s for another day. The question for Aquaman (as well as Mary Poppins Returns, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Bumblebee) is whether audiences will show up for any of the wide releases that aren’t Glass between now and The LEGO Movie 2 on February 8. As a general rule, the year-end biggies are exceptionally leggy not just because of the Christmas blitz but because the new year is comparatively slow to start up. That’s doubly-true this year with only one “big” movie in January, an environment where audiences no longer go to theaters just to go to a movie and an Oscar season entirely devoid of breakouts.
The Christmas biggies don’t have to worry about a La La Land or a Hidden Figures stepping on their toes, and really Glass is the only big movie that might hit huge over the next month. Unless The Kid Who Would Be King, Serenity (and under-the-rader thriller with Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway) surprise on January 25, or if Miss Bala breaks out on February 1, the Unbreakable/Split sequel is the only challenge for the year-end biggies between now and early February (LEGO Movie 2, What Men Want, The Prodigy, Cold Pursuit, Alita: Battle Angel, Happy Death Day 2U, etc.). That is good news for the year-end fantasy flicks since their respective studios (Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount and Sony) won’t be otherwise occupied until early February. Okay, Walt Disney is distributing Universal’s Glass overseas (since Disney released Unbreakable in 2000), but they can multitask.
Aquaman is going to cross $1 billion maybe as soon as Saturday. And it’ll probably pass $300 million domestic by Martin Luther King Day. Where it goes from there is partially about how audiences respond to Glass and if they actually bother to show up for the comparatively smaller “movie-movies” opening between now and LEGO Movie 2 on February 8 as well as the expanding Oscar contenders currently in play. Going forward, Aquaman’s biggest advantage is its existence as the event movie of the moment in a time when audiences only show up for event movies. And since it no longer has to worry about movies like Bride Wars opening to $20 million+ (or… dear lord, Paul Blart: Mall Cop netting a $39m Fri-Mon frame), it could swim to infinity and beyond.As Warner Bros.’ Aquaman continues to rule the box office on its way toward a $1+ billion worldwide cume, it has already become the biggest film of the DC shared cinematic universe.
With $940+ million in global receipts, James Wan’s superhero blockbuster starring Jason Momoa in the title role has already passed the previous five DCEU releases, with no sign of slowing down anytime soon. The film has set several records during its tremendous holiday season release, and will set even more before the dust settles. It’s possible that by the end of its run, Aquaman could be the second-highest grossing solo superhero movie of all time.
Superhero cinema has been big business for years now, dominating the annual box office and holding four of the top 10 spots on the all-time worldwide box office list. Aquaman will become the tenth superhero picture to top $1 billion in theaters. How high up that list of superhero movies it climbs, however, remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt now that it will be in the elite tier.
Aquaman is currently the sixth-highest grossing solo superhero movie in history, behind Black Panther, Iron Man 3, Captain America: Civil War, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Dark Knight. Next weekend it will pass The Dark Knight to become the fifth-highest grossing solo superhero movie, and by the end of its run it will be at least either the third- or fourth-highest grossing. It will only need to top Iron Man 3’s $1.214 billion total to take the #2 spot on the all-time list of highest-grossing solo superhero films.Bye-bye, Batman v Superman. Your grim, but meaty box-office total has officially been surpassed by an octopus playing drums and his underwater friends.
The latest Saturday figures confirm James Wan’s Aquaman film has taken in the highest worldwide box-office total of any DC Extended Universe film, dethroning both the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel.
As of January 5, the deep-sea DC flick has pulled in $887 million in cumulative ticket sales, surpassing the likes of 2016’s Batman v Superman and its $873 million haul. Aquaman outswam the likes of 2017 breakout Wonder Woman ($821 million) earlier this week, and is seen as likely to cross the $1 billion mark—a first for the franchise. The much-maligned Justice League—which first featured Jason Momoa’s Aquaman after a brief tease in Batman v Superman—only pulled in $657 million worldwide, by comparison.
That said, it’s worth noting that Aquaman’s domestic box-office take has yet to outshine either Batman v Superman or Wonder Woman. According to Entertainment Weekly, international ticket sales for Aquaman make up 75 percent of the total haul (including $279 million from China). The critical response to the film has been mixed, domestically. Vanity Fair’s Richard Lawson called the film “alternately garish and graceful,” but “far from the disaster” it could have been, given past DC misfires.